"Kazakhstan is a ship seized by pirates." Why does Tokayev refer to the CSTO as a guarantor of security?

The participants of the CSTO summit, which took place in the capital of Kazakhstan on November 28, included the leaders of Russia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan (Armenia is also part of the organization, but it has suspended its participation).

“In the face of modern challenges, the CSTO consistently demonstrates its relevance as a guarantor of security for all member states. Our coordinated actions, mutual trust, and support enhance our collective ability to tackle the most complex and large-scale tasks. It is important to emphasize that the CSTO is not merely a military partnership; it is a unique mechanism that unites our efforts and resources to protect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our states,” said Tokayev.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking in Astana, threatened new strikes on Ukraine using the "Oreshnik" ballistic missiles. After the CSTO meeting, Putin stated that decision-making centers in Kyiv could be targets for these attacks.

Putin's statements were directed not only at Ukraine or NATO member countries but also to other CSTO members, believes Kazakh political scientist and director of the "Risk Assessment Group," Dosym Satpaev.

“Essentially, this is a hint to other CSTO members, such as Armenia, which is currently ignoring participation in the summit, that other countries should not follow its path — [they should] stay closer to Russia, which remains an important center of power and a regional provider of security,” the expert interpreted.

According to him, the Kremlin clearly understands that it will not be able to directly involve CSTO countries in the war with Ukraine: in particular, the presidents of Central Asian states realize that any agreement to participate in this military conflict will create problems within their own countries. This is also evidenced by Moscow's active recruitment of soldiers from North Korea: it was easier for Putin to negotiate with Pyongyang.

However, in terms of long-term prospects, the Kremlin views Kazakhstan as a more significant region than it did a decade ago.

“One must start from the understanding that there is a concept of 'geographical fate,' there is a common border, and this is constantly discussed at all levels. Both Kazakhstan and Central Asia are the important buffer that Russia currently needs, both [in terms of] creating military alliances, as was the case with Iran and North Korea, and in terms of seeking new markets and resources. We have observed, since the time of Nazarbayev, a very close economic tie of Kazakhstan to Russia, and under Tokayev, this tie has only strengthened,” Satpaev explained.

He noted that this creates significant problems for Kazakhstan, as it leads to a situation of “close attachment of the Kazakh economy to the sanctioned economy of Russia.”

“We see Kazakhstan resembling a vessel that has been boarded by pirates, with various hooks pulling Kazakhstan toward them,” Satpaev said. “Putin's visit aligns with this policy: we see a very strong strengthening of Russia in the strategic sectors of Kazakhstan's economy. The documents signed during this visit mainly concerned economic interaction.”

Moreover, the escalation of the war in Ukraine poses risks for Kazakhstan, Satpaev emphasizes. But not in terms of military aggression: the war in Ukraine is drawing many Russian resources, the expert believes, and the leaders of China and Turkey have promised security guarantees to the Central Asian region.

“In the escalation of the conflict, the use of long-range missiles is particularly active now. Hypothetically, missile strikes could be aimed at the Russian Caspian fleet or Novorossiysk. For Kazakhstan, this is a crucial hub for transporting Kazakh oil to international markets via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium,” Satpaev noted. And Tokayev, in the opinion of the political scientist, understands this.

Earlier in Kazakhstan, criminal proceedings were initiated after a Ukrainian flag appeared on an LED screen near the Astana Opera theatre during Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit. Security services reported that this was a hacker attack. Three activists from Kokshetau, who protested Putin's visit to Kazakhstan, were held administratively accountable and fined. One of the detainees emerged with a placard reading, “Your Excellency, get the hell out of Kazakhstan!” This was a reference to the enormous banners placed on the streets of Astana on the day of the Russian president's visit. The inscription on the banners read, “Your Excellency, Mr. Vladimir Putin, welcome to Astana!” and the abundance of Russian flags in the city outraged many residents.