"Kazakhstan is a schooner seized by pirates." Why does Tokayev refer to the CSTO as a guarantor of security?

Participants of the CSTO summit, held in the capital of Kazakhstan on November 28, included the leaders of Russia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan (Armenia is also a member of the organization, but it has suspended its participation).

“In light of modern challenges, the CSTO consistently demonstrates its necessity as a guarantor of security for all member states. Our coordinated actions, mutual trust, and support strengthen our collective ability to tackle the most complex and large-scale tasks. It is important to emphasize that the CSTO is not merely a military partnership; it is a unique mechanism that unites our efforts and resources to protect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our states,” said Tokayev.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a speech in Astana, threatened new strikes on Ukraine using “Oreshnik” ballistic missiles. After the CSTO meeting, Putin stated that decision-making centers in Kyiv could be targets of attacks.

Putin's statements were directed not only at Ukraine or NATO member states but also at other CSTO participants, believes Kazakh political scientist and director of the "Risk Assessment Group" Dosym Satpaev.

“Essentially, this is a hint to other CSTO members, such as Armenia, which is currently ignoring participation in the summit, that other countries should not follow its path — [it is better to] stay close to Russia, which remains an important center of power and a regional provider of security,” the expert interpreted.

According to him, the Kremlin clearly understands that it will not be possible to directly involve CSTO countries in the war with Ukraine: in particular, the presidents of Central Asian states realize that any agreement to participate in this military conflict would create internal problems within their own countries. This is also evidenced by Moscow's active recruitment of soldiers from North Korea: it was easier for Putin to negotiate with Pyongyang.

However, from a long-term perspective, the Kremlin views Kazakhstan as a more important region than it was ten years ago.

“One must consider the concept of 'geographical fate', the common border, which is constantly discussed at all levels. Both Kazakhstan and Central Asia serve as a crucial buffer that Russia currently needs, both in terms of creating military alliances, as seen with Iran and North Korea, and in terms of seeking new markets and resources. We have observed a very close economic tie between Kazakhstan and Russia since the time of Nazarbayev, and this connection has only strengthened under Tokayev,” Satpaev explained.

He noted that this creates significant problems for Kazakhstan, as it leads to a situation of “tight coupling of the Kazakh economy to the sanctioned economy of Russia.”

“We see Kazakhstan resembling a ship that has been boarded by pirates, being pulled in various directions — Kazakhstan is being drawn in by various hooks,” Satpaev said. “Putin's visit aligns with this policy: we observe a very strong strengthening of Russia in strategic sectors of Kazakhstan's economy. The documents signed during this visit primarily concerned economic cooperation.”

Furthermore, the escalation of the war in Ukraine poses risks for Kazakhstan, Satpaev emphasizes. However, not in terms of military aggression: the war in Ukraine diverts many Russian resources, the expert believes, while the leaders of China and Turkey have promised security guarantees to the Central Asian region.

“In the escalation of the conflict, the use of long-range missiles is particularly active now. Hypothetically, missile strikes could be directed at the Russian Caspian Fleet or Novorossiysk. For Kazakhstan, this is a crucial transportation hub for Kazakh oil to international markets via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium,” Satpaev pointed out. And Tokayev, in the opinion of the political scientist, understands this.

Earlier in Kazakhstan, criminal proceedings were initiated after a Ukrainian flag appeared on an LED screen next to the Astana Opera theater during Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit. Security services reported that it was a hacker attack. Three activists from Kokshetau who protested against Putin's visit to Kazakhstan were held administratively accountable and fined. One of the detainees was seen with a sign saying “Your Excellency, get the hell out of Kazakhstan!” This was a reference to the large banners placed on the streets of Astana on the day of the Russian president's visit. The banners read “Your Excellency, Mr. Vladimir Putin, welcome to Astana!” and the abundance of Russian flags in the city outraged many residents.