"Kazakhstan is like a ship seized by pirates." Why does Tokayev refer to the CSTO as a guarantor of security?

The participants of the CSTO summit held in Kazakhstan's capital on November 28 included the leaders of Russia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan (Armenia is also part of the organization but has suspended its participation).

“In the face of modern challenges, the CSTO consistently demonstrates its relevance as a guarantor of security for all member states. Our coordinated actions, mutual trust, and support strengthen our collective ability to tackle the most complex and large-scale tasks. It is important to emphasize that the CSTO is not just a military partnership; it is a unique mechanism that unites our efforts and resources to protect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our states,” said Tokayev.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking in Astana, threatened new strikes on Ukraine using "Oreshnik" ballistic missiles. After the CSTO meeting, Putin stated that decision-making centers in Kyiv could become targets of attacks.

Putin's statements were directed not only at Ukraine or NATO member countries but also at other CSTO participants, according to Kazakh political scientist and director of the "Risk Assessment Group" Dosym Satpaev.

“Essentially, this is a hint to other CSTO members, such as Armenia, which is currently ignoring participation in the summit, that other countries should not follow its path — [they should] stay close to Russia, which remains an important center of power and a regional security provider,” the expert interpreted.

According to him, the Kremlin clearly understands that it will not be able to directly involve CSTO countries in the war with Ukraine: in particular, the presidents of Central Asian states realize that any consent to participate in this military conflict will create problems within their own countries. This is also evidenced by Moscow's active recruitment of military personnel from North Korea: it was easier for Putin to negotiate with Pyongyang.

However, from a long-term perspective, the Kremlin views Kazakhstan as a more important region than it was a decade ago.

“We must start from the notion of 'geographical fate'; there is a common border, and this is constantly discussed at all levels. Kazakhstan and Central Asia are important buffers that Russia currently needs, both in terms of creating military alliances, as seen with Iran and North Korea, and in terms of seeking new markets and resources. We have observed, since the time of Nazarbayev, a very close economic connection between Kazakhstan and Russia, which has further strengthened under Tokayev,” explained Satpaev.

He stated that this creates significant issues for Kazakhstan, as it leads to a situation of “tight coupling of the Kazakh economy to the sanction-based economy of Russia.”

“We see Kazakhstan resembling a schooner that has been boarded by pirates, being pulled in various directions — this is how Satpaev described the situation. — Putin's visit is aligned with this policy: we observe a very strong intensification of Russia's influence in key sectors of Kazakhstan's economy. The documents signed during this visit mainly concerned economic cooperation.”

Moreover, the escalation of the war in Ukraine poses risks for Kazakhstan, Satpaev emphasizes. But not in terms of military aggression: the war in Ukraine is diverting many Russian resources, the expert is convinced, while the leaders of China and Turkey have promised security guarantees to the Central Asian region.

“In the escalation of the conflict, the use of long-range missiles has become particularly active. Hypothetically, missile strikes could target the Russian Caspian Flotilla or Novorossiysk. For Kazakhstan, this is a crucial hub for transporting Kazakh oil to international markets via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium,” noted Satpaev. And Tokayev, in the opinion of the political scientist, understands this.

Previously, a criminal case was initiated in Kazakhstan after a Ukrainian flag appeared on an LED screen near the Astana Opera theater during Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit. The security services reported that it was a hacker attack. Three activists from Kokshetau, who protested against Putin's visit to Kazakhstan, were held administratively responsible and fined. One of the detainees emerged with a placard reading, “Your Excellency, get the hell out of Kazakhstan!” This was a reference to large banners placed on the streets of Astana on the day of the Russian president's visit. The banners read, “Your Excellency, Mr. Vladimir Putin, welcome to Astana!” and the abundance of Russian flags in the city outraged many residents.