"Kazakhstan is a brigantine captured by pirates." Why does Tokayev refer to the CSTO as a guarantor of security?

Participants of the CSTO summit, held in the capital of Kazakhstan on November 28, included the leaders of Russia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan (Armenia is also part of the organization but has suspended its participation).

“In the face of modern challenges, the CSTO consistently demonstrates its relevance as a guarantor of security for all member states. Our coordinated actions, mutual trust, and support strengthen our collective ability to tackle the most complex and large-scale issues. It is important to emphasize that the CSTO is not just a military partnership; it is a unique mechanism that unites our efforts and resources to protect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our nations,” said Tokayev.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a speech in Astana, threatened new strikes on Ukraine with "Oreshnik" ballistic missiles. After the CSTO meeting, Putin stated that decision-making centers in Kyiv could become targets for attacks.

Putin's statements were directed not only at Ukraine or NATO member states but also at other CSTO participants, believes Kazakh political scientist, director of the "Risk Assessment Group" Dosym Satpaev.

“Essentially, this is a hint to other CSTO members, such as Armenia, which is currently ignoring participation in the summit, that other countries should not follow its path — [they should] stay closer to Russia, which remains an important center of power and a regional security provider,” the expert interpreted.

According to him, the Kremlin clearly understands that directly involving CSTO countries in the war with Ukraine will not be feasible: specifically, the presidents of Central Asian states recognize that any agreement to participate in this military conflict would create problems within their own countries. This is also evidenced by Moscow's active recruitment of soldiers from North Korea: it was easier for Putin to negotiate with Pyongyang.

However, from a long-term perspective, the Kremlin considers Kazakhstan to be a more significant region than it was a decade ago.

“We need to start from the concept of 'geographical destiny'; there is a common border, and this is constantly discussed at all levels. Kazakhstan and Central Asia are the essential buffer that Russia currently needs for both [the purpose of] military alliances, as seen with Iran and North Korea, and for seeking new markets and resources. We have observed, since the times of Nazarbayev, a very close economic tie between Kazakhstan and Russia, and under Tokayev, this tie has strengthened even further,” Satpaev explained.

According to him, this creates significant problems for Kazakhstan, as it leads to a situation of “tight coupling of the Kazakh economy to the sanctioned economy of Russia.”

“We see Kazakhstan resembling a ship that has been boarded by pirates, with various hooks pulling Kazakhstan towards them,” Satpaev said. “Putin's visit follows this policy: we observe a very strong enhancement of Russia in Kazakhstan's strategic economic sectors. The documents signed during this visit mainly pertained to economic cooperation.”

Moreover, the escalation of the war in Ukraine poses risks for Kazakhstan, emphasizes Satpaev. But not in terms of military aggression: the war in Ukraine diverts many Russian resources, the expert believes, while the leaders of China and Turkey have promised security guarantees to the Central Asian region.

“In the escalation of the conflict, the use of long-range missiles is currently very active. Hypothetically, missile strikes could be launched against the Russian Caspian Fleet or Novorossiysk. For Kazakhstan, this is a crucial transportation hub for Kazakh oil to international markets via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium,” Satpaev noted. And Tokayev, in the opinion of the political scientist, understands this.

Earlier in Kazakhstan, criminal proceedings were initiated after a Ukrainian flag appeared on an LED screen near the Astana Opera theater during Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit. The special services reported that it was a hacker attack. Three activists from Kokshetau, who protested against Putin's visit to Kazakhstan, were held administratively responsible and fined. One of the detainees appeared with a banner saying, “Your Excellency, get the hell out of Kazakhstan!” This was a reference to the large banners displayed on the streets of Astana on the day of the Russian president's visit. The banners read, “Your Excellency, Mr. Vladimir Putin, welcome to Astana!” and the abundance of Russian flags in the city outraged many residents.