"Kazakhstan is a brigantine seized by pirates." Why does Tokayev refer to the CSTO as a guarantor of security?

Participants of the CSTO summit, which took place in the capital of Kazakhstan on November 28, included the leaders of Russia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan (Armenia is also a member of the organization, but it has suspended its participation).

“In the face of modern challenges, the CSTO consistently demonstrates its relevance as a guarantor of security for all member states. Our coordinated actions, mutual trust, and support strengthen our collective ability to address the most complex and large-scale tasks. It is important to emphasize that the CSTO is not just a military partnership; it is a unique mechanism that unites our efforts and resources to protect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our states,” said Tokayev.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a speech in Astana, threatened new strikes against Ukraine using "Oreshnik" ballistic missiles. After the CSTO meeting, Putin stated that decision-making centers in Kyiv could be targets for attacks.

Putin's statements were directed not only at Ukraine or NATO member states but also at other CSTO participants, according to Kazakh political scientist and director of the "Risk Assessment Group," Dosym Satpaev.

“Essentially, this is a hint to other CSTO members, such as Armenia, which is currently ignoring participation in the summit, that other countries should not follow its path — it’s better to stay close to Russia, which remains an important center of power and a regional provider of security,” the expert interpreted.

According to him, the Kremlin clearly understands that directly involving CSTO countries in the war with Ukraine is not feasible: in particular, the presidents of Central Asian countries recognize that any agreement to participate in this military conflict would create problems within their own nations. This is further evidenced by Moscow's active recruitment of military personnel from North Korea: it was easier for Putin to negotiate with Pyongyang.

However, from a long-term perspective, the Kremlin views Kazakhstan as a more significant region than it did a decade ago.

“We must consider the concept of 'geographical fate,' as there is a common border, and this is constantly discussed at all levels. Kazakhstan and Central Asia are the important buffer that Russia currently needs, both [in terms of] creating military alliances, as was the case with Iran and North Korea, and in terms of seeking new markets and resources. We have observed, since the times of Nazarbayev, a very close economic tie of Kazakhstan specifically to Russia, and under Tokayev, this connection has only strengthened,” explained Satpaev.

He noted that this creates significant problems for Kazakhstan, as it leads to a situation of “tight coupling of the Kazakh economy to the sanction-based economy of Russia.”

“We see Kazakhstan resembling a ship that has been boarded by pirates, with various hooks pulling Kazakhstan towards them,” said Satpaev. “Putin’s visit aligns with this policy: we observe a very strong strengthening of Russia in the strategic sectors of Kazakhstan's economy. The documents signed during this visit primarily concerned economic cooperation.”

Furthermore, the escalation of the war in Ukraine poses risks for Kazakhstan, Satpaev emphasizes. But not in terms of military aggression: the war in Ukraine diverts many Russian resources, the expert believes, while the leaders of China and Turkey have promised security guarantees to the Central Asian region.

“In the escalation of the conflict, the use of long-range missiles is particularly active right now. Hypothetically, missile strikes could be directed at the Russian Caspian Flotilla, or at Novorossiysk. For Kazakhstan, this is a crucial hub for transporting Kazakh oil to international markets via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium,” noted Satpaev. He believes Tokayev understands this.

Earlier in Kazakhstan, criminal charges were filed after a Ukrainian flag appeared on an LED screen near the Astana Opera Theater during President Vladimir Putin's visit. The security services reported that it was a hacker attack. Three activists from Kokshetau, who protested against Putin's visit to Kazakhstan, were held administratively responsible and fined. One of the detainees came out with a poster saying, “Your Excellency, get the hell out of Kazakhstan!” This was a reference to large banners placed on the streets of Astana on the day of the Russian president's visit. The banners read, “Your Excellency, Mr. Vladimir Putin, welcome to Astana!” and the abundance of Russian flags in the city outraged many residents.