"Kazakhstan is a brigantine seized by pirates." Why does Tokayev refer to the CSTO as a guarantor of security?

Participants of the CSTO summit held in the capital of Kazakhstan on November 28 included the leaders of Russia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan (Armenia is also part of the organization, but has suspended its participation).

“In the face of modern challenges, the CSTO consistently demonstrates its relevance as a guarantor of security for all member states. Our coordinated actions, mutual trust, and support strengthen our collective ability to tackle the most complex and large-scale tasks. It is important to emphasize that the CSTO is not just a military partnership; it is a unique mechanism that unites our efforts and resources to protect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our states,” said Tokayev.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, during his speech in Astana, threatened new strikes against Ukraine using the “Oreshnik” ballistic missiles. After the CSTO meeting, Putin stated that decision-making centers in Kyiv could be potential targets for attacks.

Putin's statements were directed not only at Ukraine or NATO member states but also at other CSTO participants, according to Kazakh political scientist and director of the "Risk Assessment Group," Dosym Satpaev.

“Essentially, this is a hint to other CSTO members, such as Armenia, which is currently ignoring participation in the summit, that other countries should not follow its path — [they should] stay closer to Russia, which remains an important center of power and a regional security provider,” the expert interpreted.

According to him, the Kremlin clearly understands that it will not be possible to directly involve CSTO countries in the war with Ukraine; specifically, the presidents of Central Asian states recognize that any agreement to participate in this military conflict would create problems within their own countries. This is further evidenced by Moscow's active recruitment of military personnel from North Korea: it was easier for Putin to reach an agreement with Pyongyang.

However, from a long-term perspective, the Kremlin views Kazakhstan as a more significant region than it did ten years ago.

“It is essential to consider that there is a concept of 'geographical destiny,' and there is a common border; this is something that is constantly discussed at all levels. Kazakhstan and Central Asia are the crucial buffer zones that Russia currently needs, both in terms of creating military alliances, as seen with Iran and North Korea, and in seeking new markets and resources. We have observed, since the time of Nazarbayev, a very close economic tie between Kazakhstan and Russia, and under Tokayev, this tie has further strengthened,” Satpaev explained.

He stated that this creates significant problems for Kazakhstan, as it leads to a situation of “tight coupling of the Kazakh economy to the sanctioned economy of Russia.”

“We see how Kazakhstan resembles a ship that has been boarded by pirates, with various hooks pulling Kazakhstan towards them,” Satpaev said. “Putin's visit aligns with this policy: we see a considerable strengthening of Russia in the strategic sectors of Kazakhstan's economy. The documents signed during this visit mainly concerned economic interaction.”

Moreover, the escalation of the war in Ukraine poses risks for Kazakhstan as well, Satpaev emphasizes. But not in terms of military aggression: the war in Ukraine is draining many Russian resources, the expert is convinced, while the leaders of China and Turkey have promised security guarantees to the Central Asian region.

“In the escalation of the conflict, the use of long-range missiles is currently particularly active. Hypothetically, missile strikes could be directed at the Russian Caspian Fleet or Novorossiysk. For Kazakhstan, this is a critical transportation hub for Kazakh oil to international markets via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium,” Satpaev noted. And Tokayev, in the political scientist's opinion, understands this.

Earlier in Kazakhstan, criminal proceedings were initiated after the Ukrainian flag appeared on an LED screen near the Astana Opera theater during Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit. Security services reported that this was a hacking incident. Three activists from Kokshetau, who protested against Putin's arrival in Kazakhstan, were held administratively liable and fined. One of the detainees emerged with a placard reading, “Your Excellency, get the hell out of Kazakhstan!” This was a reference to the large banners displayed on the streets of Astana on the day of the Russian president's visit. The banners read, “Your Excellency, Mr. Vladimir Putin, welcome to Astana!” and the abundance of Russian flags in the city outraged many residents.