"Kazakhstan is a brigantine seized by pirates." Why does Tokayev refer to the CSTO as a guarantor of security?

Participants of the CSTO summit held in the capital of Kazakhstan on November 28 included the leaders of Russia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan (Armenia is also part of the organization but has suspended its participation).

“In the face of modern challenges, the CSTO consistently demonstrates its relevance as a guarantor of security for all member states. Our coordinated actions, mutual trust, and support strengthen our collective ability to tackle the most complex and large-scale issues. It is important to emphasize that the CSTO is not just a military partnership; it is a unique mechanism that unites our efforts and resources to protect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of our nations,” said Tokayev.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking in Astana, threatened new strikes against Ukraine using "Oreshnik" ballistic missiles. After the CSTO meeting, Putin stated that decision-making centers in Kyiv could become targets for these attacks.

Putin's statements were directed not only at Ukraine or NATO member countries, but also at other CSTO participants, believes Kazakh political scientist and director of the "Risk Assessment Group," Dosym Satpaev.

“Essentially, this is a hint to other CSTO members, such as Armenia, which is currently ignoring participation in the summit, that other countries should not follow its path — [they should] stay closer to Russia, which remains an important center of power and a regional security provider,” the expert interpreted.

According to him, the Kremlin clearly understands that directly involving CSTO countries in the war with Ukraine is not feasible; specifically, the presidents of Central Asian states recognize that any agreement to participate in this military conflict would create problems within their own countries. This is further evidenced by Moscow's active recruitment of soldiers from North Korea: it was easier for Putin to negotiate with Pyongyang.

However, from a long-term perspective, the Kremlin views Kazakhstan as a more significant region than it did a decade ago.

“One must consider the concept of 'geographical fate'; there is a shared border, and this is constantly discussed at all levels. Kazakhstan and Central Asia represent an important buffer that Russia currently needs both [in terms of] creating military alliances, as seen with Iran and North Korea, and in seeking new markets and resources. We have observed, since the time of Nazarbayev, a very close economic connection between Kazakhstan and Russia, which has further intensified under Tokayev,” Satpaev explained.

He noted that this creates significant challenges for Kazakhstan, leading to a situation of “tight coupling of the Kazakh economy to the sanctioned economy of Russia.”

“We see Kazakhstan resembling a ship that has been boarded by pirates, with various hooks pulling it closer to Russia,” Satpaev stated. “Putin's visit aligns with this policy: we are witnessing a strong increase in Russia's influence in strategic sectors of Kazakhstan's economy. The documents signed during this visit primarily concerned economic cooperation.”

Moreover, the escalation of the war in Ukraine poses risks for Kazakhstan, Satpaev emphasizes. However, not in terms of military aggression: the war in Ukraine diverts many Russian resources, the expert believes, while the leaders of China and Turkey have promised security guarantees to the Central Asian region.

“In the escalation of the conflict, the use of long-range missiles is particularly active now. Hypothetically, missile strikes could target the Russian Caspian Fleet or Novorossiysk. For Kazakhstan, this is a crucial hub for transporting Kazakh oil to international markets via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium,” Satpaev noted. And Tokayev, in the opinion of the political scientist, understands this.

Earlier in Kazakhstan, criminal proceedings were initiated after the Ukrainian flag appeared on an LED screen near the Astana Opera theater during Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit. Security services reported that this was a hacker breach. Three activists from Kokshetau, who protested Putin's arrival in Kazakhstan, faced administrative penalties and fines. One of the detainees held a placard reading, “Your Excellency, get the hell out of Kazakhstan!” This referenced the large banners displayed on the streets of Astana on the day of the Russian president's visit. The banners read, “Your Excellency, Mr. Vladimir Putin, welcome to Astana!” and the abundance of Russian flags in the city outraged many residents.