Fear and uncertainty diminish Russia's appeal for migrants from Central Asia.

Aktilek, an entrepreneur from Kyrgyzstan, worked in Russia for ten years as a janitor, cook, and taxi driver. He then returned home due to illness and started a car import business in his hometown of Osh.

Upon arriving in Moscow four years later, the 32-year-old man was shocked.

“The difference between the old Russia and the current one is enormous,” says Aktilek, who preferred not to disclose his last name.

According to him, during his stay in Russia this November, he was stopped up to three times a day and interrogated upon arrival.

“The attitude towards migrants there today, however harsh it may sound, is akin to that towards a shoe insole. This attitude comes from both the police and ordinary people,” the businessman recounts.

For decades, Russia has been a primary destination for millions of labor migrants from Central Asia, who faced oppression and discrimination. However, the recent increase in attacks on migrants and the decline of the Russian economy have diminished its appeal.

The full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022, which triggered international sanctions, struck a blow to the economy and weakened the ruble.

Meanwhile, Russia has deported or banned entry to tens of thousands of migrants from Central Asia following the attack on a concert hall near Moscow in March by the extremist group ISIS-Khorasan. This attack resulted in approximately 140 deaths.

Several citizens of Tajikistan were arrested for their alleged involvement in the deadliest attack in Russia in decades. They appeared in court showing clear signs of beatings and torture.

“After the incident at the Crocus City Hall, checks on registration and inspections became much stricter,” says a migrant from Kyrgyzstan living in Moscow. “They held us for five hours [at the airport]. They asked: ‘What is the purpose of your visit?’ They even checked our phones.”

“NO RELAXATIONS”

People from Central Asia make up the overwhelming majority of the foreign workforce in Russia.

Many who still work in Russia cite economic uncertainty and police checks as their biggest challenges.

“2024 has been tough. We mostly worked just to cover our expenses,” said a migrant from Uzbekistan, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

“I haven’t heard anything good. The news mentions new laws [on migration]. I don’t know what these laws are,” said a migrant from Kyrgyzstan who refused to give his name for safety reasons. “But I understand that for migrants, it will be a completely new year. There will be no relaxations after this.”

According to the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs, from January to July, 143,000 people were denied entry into Russia. This marks a significant increase compared to 2023.

According to the ministry, nearly 93,000 people were deported from Russia, which is 53 percent more than during the same period last year.

Some migrants from Central Asia are choosing to leave Russia voluntarily.

According to the Kyrgyz Ministry of Foreign Affairs, around 587,000 Kyrgyz citizens were officially registered in Russia as residing and working in the country in 2022. Last summer, the ministry stated that this number had decreased to 411,000.

EUROPE AND SOUTH KOREA ARE NOT A PANACEA

Fewer migrants from Central Asia are heading to Russia, while more are seeking work in Europe and South Korea.

In September, the President of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, signed a migration agreement with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, but neither side mentioned the size of the agreed quota.

The Kyrgyz Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported an increase in the number of citizens registered in South Korea: from eight thousand in 2022 to fifteen thousand this year. The Migration Service of Uzbekistan stated that 92,000 citizens of Uzbekistan are legally employed in South Korea.

Salaries in more developed countries can be significantly higher for foreign workers. However, other countries seem unprepared to accept as many labor migrants as Russia does.

Ironically, the growing labor shortage in Russia is leading to increased wages.

In the summer, the Russian research platform Migrant Servis reported that wages offered to migrants at industrial enterprises rose from 105,000 rubles per month in January (less than $1,200) to 145,000 rubles per month (about $1,600) in June, forecasting further wage increases if the labor shortage persists.

“Those who wanted to return to Kyrgyzstan have left. It has become harder for us to process documents. Those who wanted to work here are still working here,” said a migrant from Kyrgyzstan, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Materials from Migrant Media correspondents were used in preparing this article.